WhenAllTodayTomorrowThis weekfilters the board + fixtures below
Live board — de-vigged value across today's board · tap a row to open it
| Selection | Fair | Live best | Δ% (EV) | Drift | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoritibaVALUE Brazil Série A · Coritiba — Palmeiras |
3.37 | 3.70 | ▲ +9.8% | onexbet ↗ | |
| FiorentinaVALUE Serie A · AS Roma — Fiorentina |
6.20 | 6.70 | ▲ +8.0% | onexbet ↗ | |
| IFK GoteborgVALUE Allsvenskan · Malmo FF — IFK Goteborg |
4.10 | 4.40 | ▲ +7.3% | unibet se ↗ | |
| Real Racing Club de SantanderVALUE La Liga · Real Racing Club de Santander — Villarreal |
3.18 | 3.40 | ▲ +6.8% | betfair ex eu ↗ | |
| Los Angeles FCVALUE MLS · LA Galaxy — Los Angeles FC |
2.44 | 2.60 | ▲ +6.5% | leovegas se ↗ | |
| CA OsasunaVALUE La Liga · Celta Vigo — CA Osasuna |
3.89 | 4.10 | ▲ +5.5% | betfair ex uk ↗ | |
| VfB StuttgartVALUE Bundesliga · Bayern Munich — VfB Stuttgart |
8.88 | 9.30 | ▲ +4.7% | nordicbet ↗ | |
| DrawVALUE UCL Qualifying · FC Iberia 1999 — FC Flora |
4.02 | 4.20 | ▲ +4.6% | tipico de ↗ |
Value outliers de-vigged edge · best of 40
+9.8%Coritiba — Palmeiras
Brazil Série A · onexbet · 3.7 vs fair 3.371
+8.0%AS Roma — Fiorentina
Serie A · onexbet · 6.7 vs fair 6.204
+7.3%Malmo FF — IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan · unibet se · 4.4 vs fair 4.1
+6.8%Real Racing Club de Santander — Villarreal
La Liga · betfair ex eu · 3.4 vs fair 3.183
+6.5%LA Galaxy — Los Angeles FC
MLS · leovegas se · 2.6 vs fair 2.441
+5.5%Celta Vigo — CA Osasuna
La Liga · betfair ex uk · 4.1 vs fair 3.887
+4.7%Bayern Munich — VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga · nordicbet · 9.3 vs fair 8.882
+4.6%Draw · FC Iberia 1999 — FC Flora
UCL Qualifying · tipico de · 4.2 vs fair 4.016
Props just dropped World Cup · de-vig vs Betfair/Pinnacleall props →
+14.3%William Saliba
Anytime scorer · France — Spain · onexbet 12.00
+8.3%Desire Doue
Anytime scorer · France — Spain · williamhill 4.33
+8.2%Lamine Yamal
Anytime scorer · France — Spain · onexbet 3.30
+5.3%Granit Xhaka
Anytime scorer · Argentina — Switzerland · onexbet 10.00
+4.8%Cristian Romero
Anytime scorer · Argentina — Switzerland · onexbet 11.00
Prediction markets Polymarket vs sportsbooks · World Cup winner · keylesswhere the two markets disagree = edge
| Team | Polymarket | Best book | Book | Δ% (EV) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 18% | 7.40 (14%) | betfair ex eu | ▲ +32.1% |
| France | 39% | 2.60 (38%) | betfair ex eu | ▲ +1.9% |
| Argentina | 17% | 5.60 (18%) | betfair ex eu | ▼ -6.8% |
| Spain | 21% | 4.40 (23%) | betfair ex eu | ▼ -8.7% |
| Switzerland | 2% | 44.00 (2%) | betfair ex eu | ▼ -23% |
| Norway | 2% | 16.50 (6%) | betfair ex eu | ▼ -70.3% |
Rolling xG fraud-detector · WC + MLSteam tiers →
FADENashville SC
MLS · goals 2.67 vs xG 0.59 (+2.08/g) · xGΔ -0.78
BACKLos Angeles Galaxy
MLS · goals 1.33 vs xG 1.88 (-0.55/g) · xGΔ +0.39
BACKHouston Dynamo
MLS · goals 0.67 vs xG 1.15 (-0.48/g) · xGΔ -0.15
FADEColumbus Crew
MLS · goals 1.67 vs xG 1.2 (+0.46/g) · xGΔ -0.58
FADEUSA
World Cup · goals 1.67 vs xG 1.23 (+0.44/g) · xGΔ -0.54
Correlated combos SGP · win × scorer · our fair price
9.40Switzerland win + Lionel Messi scores
Argentina — Switzerland · win 6.33 × scorer 2.08 · naive 13.16 → corr-adj 9.40
12.20Switzerland win + Lautaro Martinez scores
Argentina — Switzerland · win 6.33 × scorer 2.70 · naive 17.08 → corr-adj 12.20
17.17Switzerland win + Nicolas Paz Martinez scores
Argentina — Switzerland · win 6.33 × scorer 3.80 · naive 24.04 → corr-adj 17.17
17.40Switzerland win + Julian Alvarez scores
Argentina — Switzerland · win 6.33 × scorer 3.85 · naive 24.36 → corr-adj 17.40
Fixtures next up · tap to open
Post-match — settled vs actual CLV on tracked linesAPI-Football
| Match | Market | Line | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte IS 4-3 BK Hacken | Örgryte IS | 5.90 | 1 | HIT | -9.2% |
| Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm | AIK | 3.90 | 2 | HIT | +14.7% |