Best now
+14.3% Nicolas Paz Martinez (Anytime scorer) 4.00 @ williamhill BET ↗+14.3% William Saliba (Anytime scorer) 12.00 @ onexbet BET ↗+9.8% Coritiba (1X2) 3.70 @ onexbet BET ↗
WhenAllTodayTomorrowThis weekfilters the board + fixtures below
Live board — de-vigged value across today's board · tap a row to open it
| Selection | Fair | Live best | Δ% (EV) | Drift | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoritibaVALUE Brazil Série A · Coritiba — Palmeiras |
3.37 | 3.70 | ▲ +9.8% | onexbet ↗ | |
| FiorentinaVALUE Serie A · AS Roma — Fiorentina |
6.20 | 6.70 | ▲ +8.0% | onexbet ↗ | |
| IFK GoteborgVALUE Allsvenskan · Malmo FF — IFK Goteborg |
4.10 | 4.40 | ▲ +7.3% | unibet se ↗ | |
| EnglandVALUEWC World Cup · Norway — England |
1.86 | 1.99 | ▲ +6.8% | betfair ex eu ↗ | |
| Real Racing Club de SantanderVALUE La Liga · Real Racing Club de Santander — Villarreal |
3.18 | 3.40 | ▲ +6.8% | betfair ex eu ↗ | |
| Los Angeles FCVALUE MLS · LA Galaxy — Los Angeles FC |
2.44 | 2.60 | ▲ +6.5% | leovegas se ↗ | |
| SwitzerlandVALUEWC World Cup · Argentina — Switzerland |
6.11 | 6.50 | ▲ +6.5% | unibet fr ↗ | |
| CA OsasunaVALUE La Liga · Celta Vigo — CA Osasuna |
3.89 | 4.10 | ▲ +5.5% | betfair ex uk ↗ |
Value outliers de-vigged edge · best of 41
+9.8%Coritiba — Palmeiras
Brazil Série A · onexbet · 3.7 vs fair 3.371
+8.0%AS Roma — Fiorentina
Serie A · onexbet · 6.7 vs fair 6.204
+7.3%Malmo FF — IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan · unibet se · 4.4 vs fair 4.1
+6.8%Norway — EnglandWC
World Cup · betfair ex eu · 1.99 vs fair 1.863
+6.8%Real Racing Club de Santander — Villarreal
La Liga · betfair ex eu · 3.4 vs fair 3.183
+6.5%LA Galaxy — Los Angeles FC
MLS · leovegas se · 2.6 vs fair 2.441
+6.5%Argentina — SwitzerlandWC
World Cup · unibet fr · 6.5 vs fair 6.106
+5.5%Celta Vigo — CA Osasuna
La Liga · betfair ex uk · 4.1 vs fair 3.887
Props just dropped World Cup · de-vig vs Betfair/Pinnacleall props →
+14.3%Nicolas Paz Martinez
Anytime scorer · Argentina — Switzerland · williamhill 4.00
+14.3%William Saliba
Anytime scorer · France — Spain · onexbet 12.00
+8.3%Desire Doue
Anytime scorer · France — Spain · williamhill 4.33
+8.2%Lamine Yamal
Anytime scorer · France — Spain · onexbet 3.30
+5.3%Exequiel Palacios
Anytime scorer · Argentina — Switzerland · williamhill 8.00
Prediction markets Polymarket vs sportsbooks · World Cup winner · keylesswhere the two markets disagree = edge
| Team | Polymarket | Best book | Book | Δ% (EV) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 6% | 19.00 (5%) | betfair ex eu | ▲ +8.3% |
| Argentina | 18% | 5.80 (17%) | betfair ex eu | ▲ +1.8% |
| France | 38% | 2.60 (38%) | betfair ex eu | ▼ -0.3% |
| Spain | 21% | 4.50 (22%) | betfair ex eu | ▼ -5.7% |
| Switzerland | 2% | 55.00 (2%) | betfair ex eu | ▼ -9.2% |
| England | 14% | 6.20 (16%) | betfair ex eu | ▼ -11% |
Rolling xG fraud-detector · WC + MLSteam tiers →
FADESan Diego
MLS · goals 3.33 vs xG 1.77 (+1.57/g) · xGΔ -0.48
FADEReal Salt Lake
MLS · goals 2 vs xG 0.94 (+1.06/g) · xGΔ +0.05
FADEMexico
World Cup · goals 2.33 vs xG 1.54 (+0.79/g) · xGΔ +0.61
FADEChicago Fire
MLS · goals 2.33 vs xG 1.71 (+0.62/g) · xGΔ +0.7
BACKMinnesota United FC
MLS · goals 0.67 vs xG 1.28 (-0.61/g) · xGΔ +0.37
FADEDC United
MLS · goals 2 vs xG 1.44 (+0.56/g) · xGΔ -0.68
Correlated combos SGP · win × scorer · our fair price
9.16Switzerland win + Lionel Messi scores
Argentina — Switzerland · win 6.11 × scorer 2.10 · naive 12.82 → corr-adj 9.16
15.27Switzerland win + Nicolas Paz Martinez scores
Argentina — Switzerland · win 6.11 × scorer 3.50 · naive 21.37 → corr-adj 15.27
15.27Switzerland win + Lautaro Martinez scores
Argentina — Switzerland · win 6.11 × scorer 3.50 · naive 21.37 → corr-adj 15.27
15.70Switzerland win + Julian Alvarez scores
Argentina — Switzerland · win 6.11 × scorer 3.60 · naive 21.98 → corr-adj 15.70
Fixtures next up · tap to open
Post-match — settled vs actual CLV on tracked linesAPI-Football
| Match | Market | Line | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte IS 4-3 BK Hacken | Örgryte IS | 5.90 | 1 | HIT | -9.2% |
| Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm | AIK | 3.90 | 2 | HIT | +14.7% |