Team tiers — fraud-detector · tier splits vs top/mid/bottom × home/away
How to read the signal: FRAUD ▼ = the team has more points than its goal difference justifies (overperforming, likely to regress → fade). VALUE ▲ = better goal difference than its table position shows (underperforming, likely to improve → back).
This is the base version (GD-based, from real table/form). The full fraud-detector with adjusted xG lights up once an xG source (Sportmonks/StatsBomb) is connected — API-Football has no xG for these leagues.
This is the base version (GD-based, from real table/form). The full fraud-detector with adjusted xG lights up once an xG source (Sportmonks/StatsBomb) is connected — API-Football has no xG for these leagues.
Allsvenskan — AllsvenskanGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | ||||||||
| 1 | Sirius DWWWW | 29 | 2.64 | +17 | +1.55 | 5-1-0 | 4-1-0 | — |
| 2 | Hammarby FF WLLLW | 20 | 1.67 | +12 | +1.00 | 4-1-1 | 2-1-3 | — |
| 3 | BK Hacken LWDWW | 20 | 1.82 | +4 | +0.36 | 3-2-1 | 2-3-0 | — |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg LDDDD | 18 | 1.50 | +4 | +0.33 | 3-3-1 | 1-3-1 | — |
| 5 | AIK Stockholm WWLWD | 18 | 1.50 | -2 | -0.17 | 2-0-3 | 3-3-1 | FRAUD ▼ |
| Mid | ||||||||
| 6 | Djurgardens IF WLLWW | 16 | 1.60 | +8 | +0.80 | 2-1-3 | 3-0-1 | VALUE ▲ |
| 7 | Gais DWLWD | 16 | 1.33 | +5 | +0.42 | 3-2-1 | 1-2-3 | VALUE ▲ |
| 8 | Mjallby AIF LDDDL | 16 | 1.33 | +2 | +0.17 | 2-0-3 | 2-4-1 | — |
| 9 | Malmo FF WWLLL | 16 | 1.45 | +1 | +0.09 | 2-0-3 | 3-1-2 | — |
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna DDWWL | 16 | 1.45 | -1 | -0.09 | 1-2-1 | 3-2-2 | — |
| 11 | Vasteras SK FK WLWDL | 15 | 1.36 | -3 | -0.27 | 0-3-2 | 4-0-2 | — |
| Bottom | ||||||||
| 12 | Kalmar FF WLWLW | 13 | 1.18 | -1 | -0.09 | 4-1-1 | 0-0-5 | — |
| 13 | Degerfors IF LDLDL | 10 | 0.91 | -5 | -0.45 | 1-2-4 | 1-2-1 | — |
| 14 | IFK Goteborg LWDWL | 10 | 0.91 | -10 | -0.91 | 0-2-3 | 2-2-2 | — |
| 15 | Halmstad LLWDL | 6 | 0.55 | -13 | -1.18 | 1-2-3 | 0-1-4 | — |
| 16 | Orgryte IS LDLLL | 6 | 0.55 | -18 | -1.64 | 0-3-2 | 1-0-5 | — |
MLS — Western ConferenceGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | ||||||||
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps WLWDD | 32 | 2.29 | +22 | +1.57 | 7-0-1 | 3-2-1 | — |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes WLLDD | 32 | 2.13 | +19 | +1.27 | 4-1-2 | 6-1-1 | — |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake DWWLW | 26 | 1.86 | +7 | +0.50 | 7-0-1 | 1-2-3 | — |
| 4 | FC Dallas WWLWW | 25 | 1.67 | +8 | +0.53 | 3-4-2 | 4-0-2 | — |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC WLLLD | 24 | 1.60 | +7 | +0.47 | 5-1-2 | 2-2-3 | — |
| Mid | ||||||||
| 6 | Seattle Sounders LLWDD | 24 | 1.85 | +6 | +0.46 | 4-1-1 | 3-2-2 | — |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo DWLWW | 22 | 1.57 | -4 | -0.29 | 5-0-2 | 2-1-4 | FRAUD ▼ |
| 8 | Minnesota United FC DLLDW | 22 | 1.47 | -4 | -0.27 | 2-3-2 | 4-1-3 | FRAUD ▼ |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy DWLWD | 20 | 1.33 | 0 | +0.00 | 2-3-2 | 3-2-3 | — |
| 10 | San Diego LDWDD | 17 | 1.13 | +3 | +0.20 | 3-3-3 | 1-2-3 | VALUE ▲ |
| Bottom | ||||||||
| 11 | Colorado Rapids LLWLL | 16 | 1.07 | +1 | +0.07 | 3-0-3 | 2-1-6 | VALUE ▲ |
| 12 | St. Louis City WDWWL | 16 | 1.14 | -4 | -0.29 | 3-1-2 | 1-3-4 | — |
| 13 | Portland Timbers LLDWL | 14 | 1.00 | -6 | -0.43 | 3-1-2 | 1-1-6 | — |
| 14 | Austin LLLDW | 14 | 0.93 | -12 | -0.80 | 3-2-2 | 0-3-5 | — |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City LWWLD | 11 | 0.79 | -22 | -1.57 | 1-2-4 | 2-0-5 | — |
MLS — Eastern ConferenceGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | ||||||||
| 1 | Nashville SC WWWDD | 33 | 2.36 | +20 | +1.43 | 6-1-0 | 4-2-1 | — |
| 2 | Inter Miami WWWWL | 31 | 2.07 | +11 | +0.73 | 2-3-1 | 7-1-1 | — |
| 3 | Chicago Fire WWWLL | 26 | 1.86 | +11 | +0.79 | 5-0-3 | 3-2-1 | — |
| 4 | New England Revolution LWLWW | 25 | 1.79 | +4 | +0.29 | 7-0-1 | 1-1-4 | — |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls WDWWL | 22 | 1.47 | -7 | -0.47 | 3-2-2 | 3-2-3 | FRAUD ▼ |
| Mid | ||||||||
| 6 | Charlotte WWLDL | 21 | 1.40 | +1 | +0.07 | 5-2-2 | 1-1-4 | — |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati WDLDW | 20 | 1.33 | -1 | -0.07 | 4-1-2 | 1-4-3 | — |
| 8 | New York City FC LDWWL | 19 | 1.27 | +4 | +0.27 | 3-2-3 | 2-2-3 | VALUE ▲ |
| 9 | DC United DDLDW | 18 | 1.20 | -4 | -0.27 | 2-2-3 | 2-4-2 | — |
| 10 | Columbus Crew WDLLL | 16 | 1.07 | -2 | -0.13 | 3-2-2 | 1-2-5 | — |
| Bottom | ||||||||
| 11 | CF Montreal DLDWL | 14 | 1.00 | -9 | -0.64 | 3-1-2 | 1-1-6 | — |
| 12 | Orlando City SC LDWLW | 14 | 0.93 | -21 | -1.40 | 3-1-3 | 1-1-6 | — |
| 13 | Toronto FC LLLDL | 14 | 1.00 | -7 | -0.50 | 2-5-2 | 1-0-4 | — |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC LDLWW | 11 | 0.79 | -9 | -0.64 | 2-1-5 | 1-1-4 | — |
| 15 | Philadelphia Union LDLLD | 7 | 0.47 | -12 | -0.80 | 0-3-3 | 1-1-7 | — |
World Cup — Group AGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico LWWWW | 9 | 3.00 | +6 | +2.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | South Africa LWDL | 4 | 1.33 | -1 | -0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | South Korea LLW | 3 | 1.00 | -1 | -0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Czechia LDL | 1 | 0.33 | -4 | -1.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group BGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland WWWWD | 7 | 2.33 | +4 | +1.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Canada LWLWD | 4 | 1.33 | +5 | +1.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Bosnia & Herzegovina LWLD | 4 | 1.33 | -1 | -0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Qatar LLD | 1 | 0.33 | -8 | -2.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group CGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil LWWWD | 7 | 2.33 | +6 | +2.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Morocco LWWWW | 7 | 2.33 | +3 | +1.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Scotland LLW | 3 | 1.00 | -3 | -1.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Haiti LLL | 0 | 0.00 | -6 | -2.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group DGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA LWLWW | 6 | 2.00 | +4 | +1.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Australia LDLW | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Paraguay LWDWL | 4 | 1.33 | -2 | -0.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Türkiye WLL | 3 | 1.00 | -2 | -0.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group EGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany LLWW | 6 | 2.00 | +6 | +2.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Ivory Coast LWLW | 6 | 2.00 | +2 | +0.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Ecuador LWDL | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Curaçao LDL | 1 | 0.33 | -8 | -2.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group FGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands LWWD | 7 | 2.33 | +6 | +2.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Japan LDWD | 5 | 1.67 | +4 | +1.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Sweden LDLW | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Tunisia LLL | 0 | 0.00 | -10 | -3.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group GGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium LWWWD | 5 | 1.67 | +4 | +1.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Egypt LWDWD | 5 | 1.67 | +2 | +0.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Iran DDD | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | New Zealand LLD | 1 | 0.33 | -6 | -2.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group HGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain WWWWW | 7 | 2.33 | +5 | +1.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Cape Verde Islands LDDD | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Uruguay LDD | 2 | 0.67 | -1 | -0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia DLD | 2 | 0.67 | -4 | -1.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group IGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France WWWWW | 9 | 3.00 | +8 | +2.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Norway WWLWW | 6 | 2.00 | +1 | +0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Senegal LWLL | 3 | 1.00 | +2 | +0.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Iraq LLL | 0 | 0.00 | -11 | -3.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group JGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina WWWWW | 9 | 3.00 | +7 | +2.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Austria LDLW | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Algeria LDWL | 4 | 1.33 | -2 | -0.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Jordan LLL | 0 | 0.00 | -5 | -1.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group KGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia LWDWW | 7 | 2.33 | +3 | +1.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Portugal LWDWD | 5 | 1.67 | +5 | +1.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Congo DR LWLD | 4 | 1.33 | +1 | +0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Uzbekistan LLL | 0 | 0.00 | -9 | -3.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group LGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England WWWDW | 7 | 2.33 | +4 | +1.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Croatia LWWL | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Ghana LLDW | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Panama LLL | 0 | 0.00 | -4 | -1.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
World Cup — Group StageGD-based over/underperformance
| # | Team form (5) | Pts | PPG | GD | GD/G | Home | Away | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | ||||||||
| 1 | Congo DR LWLD | 4 | 1.33 | +1 | +0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 2 | Sweden LDLW | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 3 | Ghana LLDW | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 4 | Ecuador LWDL | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| Mid | ||||||||
| 5 | Bosnia & Herzegovina LWLD | 4 | 1.33 | -1 | -0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 6 | Algeria LDWL | 4 | 1.33 | -2 | -0.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 7 | Paraguay LWDWL | 4 | 1.33 | -2 | -0.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 8 | Senegal LWLL | 3 | 1.00 | +2 | +0.67 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| Bottom | ||||||||
| 9 | Iran DDD | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | +0.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 10 | South Korea LLW | 3 | 1.00 | -1 | -0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 11 | Scotland LLW | 3 | 1.00 | -3 | -1.00 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |
| 12 | Uruguay LDD | 2 | 0.67 | -1 | -0.33 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | — |